Unyaka ka-2022 unokuba ngunyaka omkhulu kubavelisi abatyala imali kwitekhnoloji kunye nokujongana nemingeni emibini emikhulu yoshishino: ukungabikho kwabasebenzi kunye nekhonkco lokubonelela elingazinzanga.Getty Images
Nyanga uChris Kuehl, uHlalutyi lwezoQoqosho lwamazwe ngamazwe kuMbutho wabavelisi kunye nabavelisi.UMongameli kunye noMongameli we-Armada Corporate Intelligence, esekelwe eLawrence, eKan., ngokubambisana noMorris, uNelson & Associates, eLeavenworth, Kan., Ukuqalisa i-Armada Strategic Intelligence System ( I-ASIS) .Kuyo, u-Kuehl kunye neqela lakhe bachaza i-cross-section yemveliso echaphazela ishishini lokwenziwa kwesinyithi.Phantse zonke ezi mizi mveliso ziye zahamba uhambo olude kulo lonke i-2020 kunye ne-2021.Ishishini linqabile ekuqaleni kwe-2020 ngezizathu ezicacileyo, zilandelwa i-rebound eqhubekayo, nangona i-faltering, njengoko i-global supply chain chain ifunyenwe.Eminye imisebenzi yokwenziwa kwesinyithi iphuma yonke, ngelixa ezinye zingenamandla njengoko zinokuba njalo-ngokude nje zinezixhobo kunye nabantu abayidingayo ukuze benze umsebenzi (umsebenzi) jonga uMzobo 1).
"[Sibona] ukuqhubeka okunamandla okuphakathi ukuya kwixesha elide kwiimarike esizisebenzelayo, kunye nomdla okhulayo kwiinkonzo zethu kwiinkampani ezininzi," utshilo uBob Kamphuis, uSihlalo / i-CEO / uMongameli we-MEC enkulu ye-Contracts Manufacturing. Inkomfa yekota kunye nabatyali-zimali ngoNovemba. ”Nangona kunjalo, izithintelo zobonelelo lwenkampani yethu zibangele ukulibaziseka kwemveliso yamva nje.Oku akubangelwa kukunqongophala kwezixhobo zoMEC, kodwa kungenxa yokunqongophala kwabathengi bakaMEC.
U-Kamphuis wongeze ukuba ukubonelela ngezibonelelo ze-MEC eMayville, eWisccin kunye nakwisiqingatha esisempuma se-US kunye nekhonkco lokubonelela - kubandakanywa nekhonkco lokubonelela ngezinto eziluhlaza - "kubangele ukuphazamiseka okuncinci kuphela.Oku kuthetha ukuba xa abathengi bethu bekwazi ukonyusa siya kuba silungile xa sithengisa. ”
Njengomnye wabenzi bekhontrakthi abakhulu e-US (kwaye ubekwe ngokuphindaphindiweyo kwi-#1 kuluhlu lweFABRICATOR's FAB 40 Top Manufacturers), uMEC ukhonza phantse lonke ishishini kuqikelelo lwenyanga lwe-ASIS lukaKuehl, kwaye uninzi lweli shishini linokunxulumana namava e-MEC.
Imveliso yentsimbi yase-US lishishini lokuvelisa eliye libotshelelwa ekuphazamisekeni kwekhonkco lonikezelo.Ishishini liyaqhubeka ukutsalwa, lilangazelela ukukhupha.Olo tsalo lunokuba namandla ngokunyuka kwenkcitho kwiziseko ezingundoqo, ngenxa yomthetho osanda kuwiswa eWashington.Global supply amatyathanga kufuneka abambe, kwaye ade enze, uxinzelelo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso luya kuqhubeka.Kuko konke oku engqondweni, u-2022 uya kuba ngunyaka wamathuba.
Ingxelo ye-ASIS ithatha ulwazi oluvela kwinkqubo ye-St. Louis Fed's Federal Reserve Data Economic Data (FRED) yomfanekiso omkhulu, idatha yemveliso yemizi-mveliso equka ukuveliswa okuqinileyo kunye nokungahlali ixesha elide. icandelo leentsimbi eziphambili ezibonelela ngezinto ezikrwada kubenzi besinyithi, nto leyo enikezela ngamacandelo kumashishini ahlukeneyo.
Abavelisi ngokwabo bakhona kuluhlu lweendidi ezisetyenziswa ngurhulumente ukwahlula abavelisi, kubandakanywa neemveliso zentsimbi ezenziweyo, udidi oluquka konke olubandakanya ulwakhiwo kunye neentsimbi zesakhiwo;ibhoyila, itanki kunye nokuveliswa kweenqanawa;kunye nabo banikezela ngeenkonzo kwamanye amacandelo.umenzi wekhontrakthi.Ingxelo ye-ASIS ayiquki zonke iindawo ezigutyungelwe ngabavelisi besinyithi - akukho ngxelo iyenzayo - kodwa igubungela iindawo zokuthengisa uninzi lwesinyithi esenziweyo, ipleyiti kunye netyhubhu kweli lizwe.Kaloku, ibonelela ngokufutshane kwinto enokujongana neshishini ngo-2022.
Ngokutsho kwengxelo ka-Oktobha ye-ASIS (esekelwe kwidatha kaSeptemba), abavelisi bakwimarike engcono kakhulu kunokuvelisa ngokubanzi. Umatshini (kubandakanywa nezixhobo zolimo), i-aerospace, kunye neemveliso ezenziwe ngentsimbi, ngokukodwa, zinokuthi zibone ukukhula okukhulu kulo lonke. Ngo-2022-kodwa oku kukhula kuya kwenzeka kwindawo yeshishini echatshazelwe luphazamiseko lokubonelela.
Ingxelo yoqikelelo lwemveliso yeshishini ehlala ixesha elide kunye nengapheliyo icebisa oku kumodareyithwa (jonga uMfanekiso 2) Uqikelelo lwe-ASIS lukaSeptemba (olukhutshwe ngo-Oktobha) lubonise ukuba imveliso yonke yehla ngepesenti yepesenti kwikota yokuqala ye-2022, ibanjwe ngokuzinzileyo, kwaye emva koko. yehle ngeepesenti ezimbalwa ekuqaleni kuka-2023.
Icandelo leentsimbi eziphambili liya kuba nohlumo olukhulu ngo-2022 (jonga uMfanekiso 3). Oku kubonisa kakuhle umsebenzi weshishini ngakumbi ezantsi kwisixokelelwano sobonelelo, ukuba nje abavelisi kunye nabanye banokuqhubeka begqithisa ukonyuka kwamaxabiso.
Umzobo 1 Lo mfanekiso uyinxalenye yoqikelelo oluneenkcukacha ngakumbi olukhutshwe yi-Armada's Strategic Intelligence System (ASIS) ngoNovemba, ebonisa uqikelelo lwamashishini athile. amanani ahluke kancinane.Ngaphandle koko, ingxelo ye-ASIS kaOktobha noNovemba zombini zikhomba ukuguquguquka kunye nethuba ngo-2022.
Ukusukela kwintsimbi ukuya kwinikeli, i-aluminiyam, ubhedu kunye nezinye iintsimbi ezichaphazela ishishini, sisabona ukuphakama kwexesha lonke. bambelela… Abanye abathengi banike ingxelo yokuba babona ukufumaneka kwemveliso okuphuculweyo.Kodwa ngokubanzi, unikezelo lwehlabathi luhlala luxhalabile. ”
Njengokuba ngexesha lokushicilela, iUnited States kunye ne-European Union baye baxoxisana ngesivumelwano esitsha apho iirhafu zentsimbi kunye ne-aluminium evela kwi-European Union ye-25% kunye ne-10%, ngokulandelanayo, iya kuhlala ingatshintshi. Kodwa ngokutsho kukaNobhala wezoRhwebo uGina Raimondo, i I-US iya kuvumela isixa esilinganiselweyo sokungeniswa kwesinyithi ngaphandle kwemisebenzi evela eYurophu.Kuhlala kubonakala ukuba oku kuya kuba nefuthe elingakanani kumaxabiso ezinto eziphathekayo kwixesha elide.Kuyo nayiphi na isiganeko, abaninzi abalindi beshishini abacingi ukuba imfuno yesinyithi iya kuncipha. nanini na kungekudala.
Kuwo onke amashishini abavelisi abasebenzelayo, imboni yemoto iyona nto iguquguqukayo (jonga umfanekiso 4) .Ishishini lehlile ngokukhawuleza kwikota yokuqala neyesibini ye-2021 ngaphambi kokuba iphinde iphinde ibuyele ekupheleni konyaka.Ngokwezibikezelo ze-ASIS, le ntshukumo. iya kuqhubeka iqinisa kwikota yokuqala neyesibini ye-2022, ngaphambi kokuba ihlehlise kwakhona emva konyaka. Ngokubanzi, ishishini liya kuba kwindawo engcono, kodwa liya kuba luhambo.Ubuninzi bokuguquguquka bubangelwa ukunqongophala kwehlabathi jikelele. iimicrochips.
"Amashishini athembele kakhulu kwii-chipsets ajongene neyona mbono ibuthathaka," uKuhl wabhala ngoSeptemba." Uninzi lwabahlalutyi ngoku lubona ikota yesibini ka-2022 njengexesha apho ikhonkco lokubonelela nge-chipset liya kuba semgangathweni kakhulu.
Amanani aguqukayo kwi-forecast yemoto abonisa indlela imeko eguquguqukayo ngayo.Iingqikelelo zangaphambili ukuba i-auto industry ihlale izinzile ngokukhula okuncinci okubalulekileyo.Ngexesha lokubhala, i-ASIS ixela ukukhula okunempilo kakhulu kwiikota zokuqala, kulandelwa ukwehla kamva enyakeni, mhlawumbi isiphumo sokungahambelani konikezelo.Kwakhona, ibuyela kwi-microchips kunye nezinye izinto ezithengiweyo.Xa zifika, imveliso iqala kwakhona de i-block chain blocks kwakhona, ukulibazisa ukuveliswa.
Ibala le-aerospace likhula ngokukhawuleza.Njengoko uCool wabhalayo ngoSeptemba, “Imbonakalo yeshishini lezophapho ibonakala intle kakhulu, inyukela ekuqaleni kuka-2022 kwaye iyaqhubeka ukuba phezulu unyaka wonke.Le yenye yezona mbono zintle kwishishini lilonke. ”
I-ASIS iqikelela ukukhula konyaka okungaphezulu kwe-22% phakathi kuka-2020 no-2021-ayiyonto ingaqhelekanga kakhulu xa kujongwa umkhombe oye wafunyanwa lishishini ekuqaleni kobhubhane (jonga umfanekiso 5) .Nangona kunjalo, i-ASIS iqikelela ukuba ukukhula kuya kuqhubeka ngo-2022, kunye neenzuzo ezinkulu ekuqaleni. iikota ezimbini.Ekupheleni konyaka, ingxelo iqikelela ukuba ishishini le-aerospace liya kukhula elinye i-22%.Inxalenye yokukhula yayiqhutywa kukunyuka kwempahla yomoya.Iinqwelo-moya nazo zongeza amandla, ngakumbi e-Asia.
Olu luhlu lubandakanya izixhobo zokukhanyisa, izixhobo zasekhaya, kunye nezinto ezahlukeneyo zombane ezihambelana nokuhanjiswa kwamandla. kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka, emva koko unciphise kakhulu, kwaye ube tyaba ngokubanzi ekupheleni konyaka (jonga uMfanekiso 6).
Njengoko uKuhl wabhalayo, "Izixhobo eziphambili ezifana ne-microchips ngokucacileyo zisanqongophele.Ubhedu, nangona kunjalo, aluzange lwenze iintloko njengezinye iintsimbi, "yongeza ukuba amaxabiso obhedu anyuke nge-41% unyaka nonyaka ukuya kutsho ngoSeptemba ka-2021.
Olu luhlu lubandakanya izixhobo zokukhanyisa kunye neentsimbi zentsimbi ezisetyenziswa ngokubanzi kwizakhiwo zorhwebo, ishishini elihlaselwa yimizila ebanzi yendawo yokusebenza.Amathuba okwakha anxulumene nokuvelisa, ukuthutha, indawo yokugcina impahla kunye nokunakekelwa kwezempilo kuninzi, kodwa ezinye iindawo zokwakha zorhwebo, kuquka izakhiwo zeofisi, ziya zicutheka. ”Ukubuyela umva kulwakhiwo lweshishini kuye kwacotha njengoko ukuvulwa kwakhona kwaye ukuqalisa kwakhona komsebenzi kuthathe ixesha elide kunokuba bekulindelwe,” wabhala uKuhl.
Umzobo 2 Ukukhula kwimveliso yefektri ngokubanzi, kubandakanywa ukuveliswa kwempahla ehlala ixesha elide kunye nengapheliyo, kulindeleke ukuba ihlale iphantsi kwi-2022.
Eli shishini libandakanya ukwenziwa kwezixhobo zezolimo kunye namanye amacandelo angaphantsi, kwaye ukusukela ngoSeptemba ka-2021, ukukhula koshishino lelinye lawona avakaliswa kakhulu kwi-ASIS (jonga umfanekiso wesi-7).” indlela ngenxa yezizathu ezithathu, "uKuhl wabhala.Okokuqala, iivenkile, iifektri kunye nabahlanganisi baye balibazisa i-2020 capex, ngoko ngoku bayayibamba.Okwesibini, abaninzi abantu balindele ukuba amaxabiso anyuke, ngoko ke iinkampani zifuna ukuthenga oomatshini ngaphambi koko.Okwesithathu, kunjalo. , kukunqongophala kwabasebenzi kunye nokutyhalela phambili koomatshini kunye noomatshini kuwo wonke ukuvelisa, ulungiselelo, ezothutho, kunye namanye amacandelo oqoqosho.
"Inkcitho kwezolimo nayo iyakhawuleza," utshilo uKull, "njengoko imfuno yokutya yehlabathi idala ukukhula okukhulu kweefama zorhwebo."
Umgca wendlela yokwenziwa kwesinyithi ubonisa umyinge, kwinqanaba lenkampani nganye, elixhomekeke kakhulu kumxube wabathengi bevenkile.Abakhiqizi abaninzi abancedisi kuphela amanye amacandelo amaninzi, kodwa ngamashishini amancinci anabathengi abambalwa abaqhuba ingeniso eninzi. Umthengi omkhulu waya emazantsi, kwaye imali yomzi-mveliso yatshatyalaliswa.
Zonke izinto ezijongwayo, umgca wendlela wehle malunga nawo onke amanye amashishini ekuqaleni kuka-2020, kodwa hayi kakhulu. ikhonkco lonikezelo.Nangona kunjalo, ukuqala ngo-Epreli ka-2022, i-ASIS ilindele ukubona iinzuzo ezithile eziphawulekayo njengoko imiqulu ikhula (jonga uMfanekiso 8).
U-Kuehl uchaze ishishini ngo-2022 elijongene nokuphazamiseka kwikhonkco lokubonelela ngeemoto kunye nokunqongophala okubanzi kwee-microchips kunye namanye amacandelo. ishishini lokwenziwa kwesinyithi ngo-2022 likhangeleka lilungile.
“Enye yezona zinto ziphambili zethu eziphambili kukugcina kunye nokwandisa isiseko sabasebenzi bethu abanezakhono ukuze basincede siqonde ukukhula kwethu.Silindele ukuba ukufumana abantu abafanelekileyo kuya kuqhubeka nokuba yinto ephambili kwikamva elibonakalayo kuninzi lwemimandla yethu Imingeni.Amaqela ethu e-HR asebenzisa iindlela ezahlukeneyo zobuchule bokuqesha, kwaye njengenkampani siza kuqhubeka nokutyala imali kwi-automation eguquguqukayo, enokuphinda isetyenziswe nakwitekhnoloji. ”
I-MEC's Kamphuis yenza amagqabaza kubatyalo-mali ekuqaleni kukaNovemba, yongeza ukuba inkampani iye yafikelela kwi-40 yezigidi zeerandi kwiindleko ezinkulu kwi-site yayo entsha ye-450,000-square-foot-foot kwi-2021 yedwa. I-Hazel Park, i-Michigan plant.
Amava e-MEC abonisa i-trend industry enkulu.Ngoku kunanini ngaphambili, abavelisi bafuna umthamo oguquguqukayo ovumela ukuba banqande ngokukhawuleza kwaye baphendule ukungaqiniseki.Injongo ibilisa ukunyusa isantya somsebenzi, ukusuka kwisicatshulwa sokuqala ukuya kwi-dock yokuthumela.
Itekhnoloji iyaqhubeka nokuqhubela phambili ishishini, kodwa izithintelo ezibini zenza ukukhula kube ngumngeni: ukungabikho kwabasebenzi kunye nekhonkco lonikezelo olungalindelekanga.Iivenkile ezihamba ngempumelelo zombini ziya kubona amaza okuvelisa amathuba kwi-2022 nangaphaya.
UTim Heston, uMhleli oMkhulu kwi-FABRICATOR, uye wagubungela imboni yesinyithi ukususela kwi-1998, eqala umsebenzi wakhe kunye ne-American Welding Society's Welding Magazine. Wajoyina i-FABRICATOR staff ngo-Okthobha wama-2007.
I-FABRICATOR yeyona magazini iphambili kuMntla Melika yokwenziwa kwesinyithi kunye neshishini lokwenziwa kwemveliso.Imagazini ibonelela ngeendaba, amanqaku obugcisa kunye neembali zamatyala ezenza ukuba abavelisi benze imisebenzi yabo ngokufanelekileyo.IFBRICATOR ibisebenzela ishishini ukusukela ngo-1970.
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Ixesha lokuposa: Feb-17-2022